BCSSS

International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics

2nd Edition, as published by Charles François 2004 Presented by the Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science Vienna for public access.

About

The International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics was first edited and published by the system scientist Charles François in 1997. The online version that is provided here was based on the 2nd edition in 2004. It was uploaded and gifted to the center by ASC president Michael Lissack in 2019; the BCSSS purchased the rights for the re-publication of this volume in 200?. In 2018, the original editor expressed his wish to pass on the stewardship over the maintenance and further development of the encyclopedia to the Bertalanffy Center. In the future, the BCSSS seeks to further develop the encyclopedia by open collaboration within the systems sciences. Until the center has found and been able to implement an adequate technical solution for this, the static website is made accessible for the benefit of public scholarship and education.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

WARNING (Early) 1)

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Any symptom of probable change that can only be observed and understood within a systemic framework

Early warnings offer some predictability in nonlinear systems, even if within limits.

Predictability in linear processes is theoretically reliable. However, linear processes are exceptional and generally quite unstable in time.

Nonlinear systems are submitted to different short, median and long term trends, which are imbricated and mutually constraining. Long term trends are difficult to discover, because the needed data must cover a span that easily exceeds the professional life of a scientist, or manager, and even the accumulated historical information. Examples are long term reversals in stock markets; the movement of geological faults; multisecular mega-floods in river basins, etc.

However, long term trends, once established, constitute a more or less reliable frame for median and short term oscillations. This means that any strong or sudden deviation in these lesser trends probably heralds a reversal of the phenomenon, or behavior of the system, possibly in a catastrophic or chaotic way.

The development of a good general theory of early warnings could become a very significant contribution of systemics.

Categories

  • 1) General information
  • 2) Methodology or model
  • 3) Epistemology, ontology and semantics
  • 4) Human sciences
  • 5) Discipline oriented

Publisher

Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science(2020).

To cite this page, please use the following information:

Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science (2020). Title of the entry. In Charles François (Ed.), International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics (2). Retrieved from www.systemspedia.org/[full/url]

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