BCSSS

International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics

2nd Edition, as published by Charles François 2004 Presented by the Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science Vienna for public access.

About

The International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics was first edited and published by the system scientist Charles François in 1997. The online version that is provided here was based on the 2nd edition in 2004. It was uploaded and gifted to the center by ASC president Michael Lissack in 2019; the BCSSS purchased the rights for the re-publication of this volume in 200?. In 2018, the original editor expressed his wish to pass on the stewardship over the maintenance and further development of the encyclopedia to the Bertalanffy Center. In the future, the BCSSS seeks to further develop the encyclopedia by open collaboration within the systems sciences. Until the center has found and been able to implement an adequate technical solution for this, the static website is made accessible for the benefit of public scholarship and education.

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TIME HORIZON 2)5)

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"The last year in the future to which a model can be run".

This notion is closely related to J. FORRESTER's Systems Dynamics.

According to D. MEADOWS et al: "The time horizon may be an important factor in distinguishing between optimistic and pessimisitic futures. Both World 3 and the MESAROVIC/PESTEL models reveal problems that may occur some time after the turn of the century. Models that have shorter time horizon cannot shed much light on such problems. On the other hand, the more analytically oriented and detailed econometric and input-output models are probably more useful for short- and midterm projections" (1982, p.103).

In any case, long term models are normally ore uncertain than short term ones, because they include not easily verifiable hypothesis about the future validity of long term trends, as they seem to appear from data through the modelizer interpretation. Moreover, let us not forget that complex systems may unexpectedly show a chaotic behavior.

Categories

  • 1) General information
  • 2) Methodology or model
  • 3) Epistemology, ontology and semantics
  • 4) Human sciences
  • 5) Discipline oriented

Publisher

Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science(2020).

To cite this page, please use the following information:

Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science (2020). Title of the entry. In Charles François (Ed.), International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics (2). Retrieved from www.systemspedia.org/[full/url]

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