The French name for scientific forecasting.
Prospective has been introduced in France by G. BERGER (1964) and considerably developed by the "FUTURIBLES" group under the leadership of B.de JOUVENEL. Its conceptual foundations have been researched by Ch. FRANÇOIS (1976).
Its spirit is quite different from American futurology, albeit closer to English futurics as reflected in the journal "FUTURES". It is more concerned by the validity limits of any proposed forecasts.
It has also a higher level of insight in relation to complexity in nonlinear systems, avoids linear extrapolations and remains generally wary about any extrapolation. It is thus more concerned by systemics than futurology is. This stand has been considerably reinforced in the recent years with the development of deterministic chaos, which infuses a salutary skepticism about so many pseudo scientific "scenarios".
Prospectivists are also generally aware of the traps of the voluntarist illusions of some managers who lack clear ideas about the interactions of the system they govern with its complex environment and remain prone to ill-advised, short term and superficial tinkering.
- 1) General information
- 2) Methodology or model
- 3) Epistemology, ontology and semantics
- 4) Human sciences
- 5) Discipline oriented
To cite this page, please use the following information:
Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science (2020). Title of the entry. In Charles François (Ed.), International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics (2). Retrieved from www.systemspedia.org/[full/url]
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