Anticipation of events supposes a knowledge of former causal sequences and of the general (i.e. environmental) conditions of their occurence. Moreover, two more or less complementary hypotheses are needed:
- that we really know all the relevant conditions in which former causal sequences were produced;
- that no new factor wiII appear
This would do for dynamically stable systems.
Still, we can never be sure that some instability threshold will not be crossed and/or that bifurcations will not take place, leading to dissipative structuration (i.e. emergence of "something" different) or to chaos (appearance of one or more unsuspected alternate courses).
Forecasts are most generally based on logical deduction. However, as noted by E. JANTSCH: "Logical deduction is always linear and partial by its very nature, since it tends to isolate a single aspect of reality" (1975, p.203). As a result, traditional ways of forecasting are of dubious value (and in many cases little more than a mirror for wishful thinking). Even more sophisticated ones are still far from being to tally trustworthy.
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To cite this page, please use the following information:
Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science (2020). Title of the entry. In Charles François (Ed.), International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics (2). Retrieved from www.systemspedia.org/[full/url]
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