BCSSS

International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics

2nd Edition, as published by Charles François 2004 Presented by the Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science Vienna for public access.

About

The International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics was first edited and published by the system scientist Charles François in 1997. The online version that is provided here was based on the 2nd edition in 2004. It was uploaded and gifted to the center by ASC president Michael Lissack in 2019; the BCSSS purchased the rights for the re-publication of this volume in 200?. In 2018, the original editor expressed his wish to pass on the stewardship over the maintenance and further development of the encyclopedia to the Bertalanffy Center. In the future, the BCSSS seeks to further develop the encyclopedia by open collaboration within the systems sciences. Until the center has found and been able to implement an adequate technical solution for this, the static website is made accessible for the benefit of public scholarship and education.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

ELLIOTT's WAVE 1)2)5)

← Back

A pattern in the evolution of stocks prices first described by Ralph ELLIOTT, a californian accountant after being ruined by the Wall Street crash of 1929)

Elliott discovered the existence of more or less regular patterns in the alternance of ups and downs of stock markets in general, and in most stocks in particular

While specific movements are individually random they seem to compose in time a kind of statistical or possibly chaotic determinism. Elliott discovery was based on long term graphics of stock quotations. It derived into a so-called "technical analysis of stock trends" through the study of certain characteristic patterns, which are supposed to have some forecasting usefulness.

This "chartist" method is widely described (with graphics) by J. CASTI (1990). It is completely at variance to the common financial and economic studies of stocks, which are totally ignored.

In fact, the chartists graphics seem to reflect the psychological aspects of stock trading (the famous "Bulls" and "Bears"). They present some interesting characteristics:

- The graphicated curves show sudden trend ruptures (in the style of R. THOM's "catastrophes")

- While all graphics are appearently highly irregular, it seems that short-term trends are imbricated in medium and long term trends. Possibly even these longer trends are somehow constructed in a cumulative way through the shorter movements.

- This last feature seems to indicate that these curves are fractals, or at least imperfect ones

- The self-similarity at different time-spans could be interpreted in terms of WEIERSTRASS renormalization group transformation

The Elliott wave could also be somehow related to the KONDRATIEFF cycle, and even with SCHUMPETER's "creative destruction" model

Untill now, the whole subject remains ill understood and also under-researched. There is surely more in it than the generally recognized random walk model.

Categories

  • 1) General information
  • 2) Methodology or model
  • 3) Epistemology, ontology and semantics
  • 4) Human sciences
  • 5) Discipline oriented

Publisher

Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science(2020).

To cite this page, please use the following information:

Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science (2020). Title of the entry. In Charles François (Ed.), International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics (2). Retrieved from www.systemspedia.org/[full/url]

We thank the following partners for making the open access of this volume possible:

© 2020 BCSSS Contact/Imprint