BCSSS

International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics

2nd Edition, as published by Charles François 2004 Presented by the Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science Vienna for public access.

About

The International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics was first edited and published by the system scientist Charles François in 1997. The online version that is provided here was based on the 2nd edition in 2004. It was uploaded and gifted to the center by ASC president Michael Lissack in 2019; the BCSSS purchased the rights for the re-publication of this volume in 200?. In 2018, the original editor expressed his wish to pass on the stewardship over the maintenance and further development of the encyclopedia to the Bertalanffy Center. In the future, the BCSSS seeks to further develop the encyclopedia by open collaboration within the systems sciences. Until the center has found and been able to implement an adequate technical solution for this, the static website is made accessible for the benefit of public scholarship and education.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

EFFECT (Delayed) 1)2)

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An effect that becomes apparent only after a very long time.

The existence of delayed effects is generally well perceived ("The last straw that broke the camel's back"), but nonetheless nearly always unperceived and unpredicted… and when predicted, mostly met with wide skepticism.

These effects tend to be catastrophic, for the following reasons:

-They generally result of a slow accumulation of very small and scantily visible effects at a time scale so long that it escapes the common observer's attention;

-They generally result in violent and very sudden discontinuities ("catastrophes");

-Their mostly show up at a macro- or megalevel in time and frequently catch their victims in a state of total unpreparedness, because they are so difficult to forecast.

- This unpredictability is compounded by the fact that they frequently lead to global instability and chaotic behavior.

Delayed effects are universal in complex systems:

- In physical systems: Earthquakes, floods, great forest fires, volcanic eruptions:

- In living systems: epidemics, strokes, infarcts

- In economic systems: bankrupcies, market crashes

- In social systems: civil wars, revolutions Delayed effects seem to be closely related to phase transitions, giant fluctuations and chaos. They frequently lead to irreversible changes.

The most dangerous delayed effects are the most delayed ones, generally related to not very obvious mega-trends. The closer study of delayed effects could lead to a "science of potential dangers" and better risks evaluations.

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Categories

  • 1) General information
  • 2) Methodology or model
  • 3) Epistemology, ontology and semantics
  • 4) Human sciences
  • 5) Discipline oriented

Publisher

Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science(2020).

To cite this page, please use the following information:

Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science (2020). Title of the entry. In Charles François (Ed.), International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics (2). Retrieved from www.systemspedia.org/[full/url]

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