BCSSS

International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics

2nd Edition, as published by Charles François 2004 Presented by the Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science Vienna for public access.

About

The International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics was first edited and published by the system scientist Charles François in 1997. The online version that is provided here was based on the 2nd edition in 2004. It was uploaded and gifted to the center by ASC president Michael Lissack in 2019; the BCSSS purchased the rights for the re-publication of this volume in 200?. In 2018, the original editor expressed his wish to pass on the stewardship over the maintenance and further development of the encyclopedia to the Bertalanffy Center. In the future, the BCSSS seeks to further develop the encyclopedia by open collaboration within the systems sciences. Until the center has found and been able to implement an adequate technical solution for this, the static website is made accessible for the benefit of public scholarship and education.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

DELPHI METHOD 4)5)

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A process of consultation of experts about the future of a system or a relevant variable in a system.

This method – a kind of elaborated opinion poll – was introduced in 1963 by DALKEY and HELMER (RAND Corporation, 1963). It aims at establishing a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of possible future changes, as seen by a number of people (30 to 40) considered as experts at international level in the researched area. Experts remain anonymous.

This is done through written and standardized inquiry forms that must be completed according to a strictly defined method. While deviant opinions are admitted, general convergence is seeked. The process is iterative and every expert is allowed to modify his/her opinions. After a number of iterations – generally four or five – a majority consensus is supposed to emerge, with quantitative evaluations (for example: there will be 55 % electric cars in 2020).

"The Delphi Method has been used in various contexts, in particular where no other procedure for obtaining answers to complex questions is readily available" (J .van GIGCH, 1978, p.432).

The method has been strongly criticized from different angles:

- Which are the criteria for selecting the experts?

- Answers are more or less dependent from the way the queries are put.

- Consensus is interesting, but gives no guarantee either that the odd man out's opinion is wrong, or that the consensus will hit the mark in due time… or ever!

- Conclusions are much more a result of more or less well or ill informed shared subjectivities than truly objective, as they are supposed to be.

M. TUROFF, among others, strongly criticized the method. His view is that it has been mainly used to justify pre-established opinions. DELPHI is obviously weak from an epistemological viewpoint. It seems to have been largely abandoned.

Delphi conferencing: A Delphi exercise conducted via computer terminals with "continuous operation and instantaneous compilation and correlation of the individual contributions to the group results" (after M. TUROFF as quoted by J.van GIGCH, 1978, p.435).

van GIGCH states: "The method of Delphi Conferencing serves to answer the question of designing a method that incorporates the advantages of the Delphi Method (controlled feedback and anonymity) and reduces some of its disadvantages (long delays between iterations and difficulty in accelerating the interactions of participants, without resorting to face-to-face confrontation" (p.435).

Categories

  • 1) General information
  • 2) Methodology or model
  • 3) Epistemology, ontology and semantics
  • 4) Human sciences
  • 5) Discipline oriented

Publisher

Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science(2020).

To cite this page, please use the following information:

Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Science (2020). Title of the entry. In Charles François (Ed.), International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics (2). Retrieved from www.systemspedia.org/[full/url]

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